Politics /First Read
Wilfredo Lee / AP
Jeb Bush's Popularity Challenge
Jeb
Bush is now even closer to a 2016 presidential run, after announcing
Tuesday that he is "actively" exploring a White House bid. And our new
NBC/WSJ poll reveals why he appears to be doing this so early: He has A
LOT of work to do. Despite having nearly perfect name identification,
he's more popular -- at least right now -- among the Beltway crowd and
deep-pocketed GOP donors than he is among most American voters.
According to our poll, just 31% of all voters say they could see
themselves supporting him for president, while 57% say they can't. He's
more popular among Republicans (55% support, 34% can't support), which
is the second-best GOP score in the poll behind Mitt Romney (see at the
bottom). But he fares worse among Democrats (9%-79%) and, more
importantly, independents (34%-52%). These numbers follow our Nov. 2014
NBC/WSJ poll, which found Bush's fav/unfav rating at a net-negative
26%-33%. Of course, this is all subject to change. We could see how Bush
-- if he runs and bests his GOP competition -- could improve his
numbers among Republicans and some independents. Nothing can change
polling numbers like success. But right now, he's not Mr. Popular (in
large part, we think, because of his last name). And it's going to take
time for him to become Jeb and not a Bush.
Hillary's your early 2016 frontrunner -- but barely
It's instructive to
compare Jeb's numbers in our NBC/WSJ poll to Hillary Clinton's: 50% say
they could see themselves supporting her if she runs, versus 48% who
oppose her. To us, those numbers sure look like what you might see in a
general election less than two years from now. (President Obama beat
Mitt Romney 51%-47% in the 2012 presidential election.) So you see both
Hillary's floor and ceiling. We couldn't imagine her getting more than
50%-51% in a general election, but we also couldn't see her getting less
than 48%-49%. Her challenge, however, is a different one: A whopping
71% of American voters want the next president to take a different
approach than Obama's; Clinton served as his first-term secretary of
state. And by 40% to 38%, voters prefer a Republican to win the White
House in 2016 instead of a Democrat. "This is an electorate --by a large
margin -- looking for change," says Republican pollster Bill McInturff,
who conducted this survey with Democratic pollster Peter Hart and his
colleagues at Hart Research Associates.
Hillary's also your big leader among Democratic voters
Still, Clinton has a
substantial lead among Democratic voters -- 82% say they could see
themselves supporting if she runs, versus 15% who can't. By contrast,
Elizabeth Warren (37% support, 25 percent oppose) and Vice President Joe
Biden (51% support, 41% oppose) have less appeal among Democrats. These
numbers -- like others before them - should quiet liberals and
political observers who are pining for an Elizabeth Warren challenge.
Yes, Warren does well among the same Democratic groups who backed Bill
Bradley in 2000 and Paul Tsongas before him. But guess what: Those folks
didn't win.
Why Hillary needs Jeb (and vice versa)
Jeb's early move is good
news for Hillary Clinton. Why? One, it rallies Democrats, who might be a
bit despondent after their midterm losses. (What fires them up more
than the opportunity to run against another Bush?) Two, Bush gives
Clinton something/someone to run AGAINST. And three, Bush getting into
the race makes him have to share the dynastic/legacy card with her.
Bottom line: Hillary needs Jeb. And vice versa, Jeb needs Hillary. Both
of their rationales for running are easier with them both in the race.
Breaking down our 2016 polling -- can you see yourselves supporting or opposing this particular candidate?
Among all voters
- Hillary Clinton 50%-48% (+2)
- Jim Webb 9%-24% (-15)
- Rand Paul 30%-47% (-17)
- Martin O'Malley 4%-21% (-17)
- Scott Walker 15%-32% (-17)
- Elizabeth Warren 22%-40% (-18)
- Bernie Sanders 10%-30% (-20)
- Marco Rubio 20%-43% (-23)
- Jeb Bush 31%-57% (-26)
- Chris Christie 27%-53% (-26)
- Mitt Romney 33%-60% (-27)
- Ted Cruz 17%-44% (-27)
- Mike Huckabee 25%-53% (-28)
- Rick Perry 19%-52% (-33)
- Joe Biden 29%-64% (-35)
Among Democrats
- Hillary Clinton 82%-15% (+67)
- Elizabeth Warren 37%-25% (+12)
- Joe Biden 51%-41% (+10)
- Jim Webb 13%-21% (-8)
- Bernie Sanders 18%-28% (-10)
- Martin O'Malley 7%-21% (-14)
Among Republicans
- Mitt Romney 63%-33% (+30)
- Jeb Bush 55%-34% (+21)
- Rand Paul 47%-34% (+13)
- Marco Rubio 39%-28% (+11)
- Scott Walker 29%-20% (+9)
- Mike Huckabee 47%-39% (+8)
- Ted Cruz 34%-33% (+1)
- Chris Christie 40%-43% (-3)
- Rick Perry 35%-39% (-4)
Among independents
- Hillary Clinton 45%-52% (-7)
- Rand Paul 29%-42% (-13)
- Martin O'Malley 3%-17% (-14)
- Jeb Bush 34%-52% (-18)
- Scott Walker 11%-32% (-21)
- Chris Christie 27%-49% (-22)
- Jim Webb 7%-29% (-22)
- Elizabeth Warren 16%-42% (-26)
- Bernie Sanders 7%-33% (-26)
- Mitt Romney 29%-60% (-31)
- Ted Cruz 11%-43% (-32)
- Marco Rubio 12%-46% (-34)
- Mike Huckabee 20%-55% (-35)
- Rick Perry 13%-53% (-40)
- Joe Biden 19%-71% (-52)
Click here to sign up for First Read emails. Text FIRST to 622639, to sign up for First Read alerts to your mobile phone. Check us out on Facebook and also on Twitter. Follow us @chucktodd, @mmurraypolitics, @carrienbcnews
First Read's Morning Clips
OBAMA AGENDA: The state of our race relations is … bad
From one of us(!): "A majority of Americans now say that race relations in the United States are bad, according to the latest NBC News/ Wall Street Journal poll,
which showed the most pessimistic assessment of racial issues in almost
two decades. In the wake of protests over the deaths of unarmed black
men at the hands of police, just four in ten Americans told pollsters
that they believe race relations in the United States are "good," while
57 percent disagreed. And nearly a quarter - 23 percent - classified the
current state of the country's racial issues as 'very bad.'"
Writes the Wall Street Journal:
"U.S. oil prices resumed their slide on Wednesday after a brief respite
the previous day, as a global oversupply of crude showed no signs of
abating. Oil prices have almost halved since the summer, with producers
from the U.S. to the Middle East ramping up output even as demand growth
for the commodity has weakened."
Barack Obama, in an interview in People magazine,
talks about times he's been mistaken for a valet or a waiter. ""It's
one thing for me to be mistaken for a waiter at a gala. It's another
thing for my son to be mistaken for a robber and to be handcuffed, or
worse, if he happens to be walking down the street and is dressed the
way teenagers dress."
USAID administrator Raj Shah is on his way out, reports the Washington Post.
From USA Today:
"President Obama has issued a form of executive action known as the
presidential memorandum more often than any other president in history —
using it to take unilateral action even as he has signed fewer
executive orders."
CONGRESS: Hasta La Vista, 113th Congress
They're outta here. The Senate finally wrapped up its work late last night, including an extension of tax breaks but a failure to renew a terrorism insurance program.
The Hill reviews how Ted Cruz's immigration gambit helped Democrats confirm additional nominees.
NBC's Frank Thorp reports that Cruz apologized to his GOP colleagues for "inconveniencing their personal schedules."
Roll Call looks at how new House Oversight Committee chair Jason Chaffetz is looking to take the panel in a new direction.
OFF TO THE RACES: Hillary's your early 2016 frontrunner - but barely
One of us(!) writes that Hillary Clinton is the early 2016 frontrunner -- but barely.
CC: Jeb Bush. Bobby Jindal, in Iowa, said
he was "absolutely opposed to this idea of party insiders, the party
establishment, donors or anybody other than voters picking our
candidates, picking our nominees for us, picking our leaders for us."
Clinton yesterday: via the AP:
"Today we can say again in a loud and clear voice that the United
States should never condone or practice torture anywhere in the world.
That should be absolutely clear as a matter of both policy and law,
including our international treaty obligations."
And here's Bernie Sanders in Ames yesterday:
"There's no way we are going to address the problems facing this
country without a political revolution." (He told an audience that he
still hasn't decided whether to run or not.)
From Perry Bacon Jr. and Leigh Ann Caldwell:
"Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush's announcement on Tuesday that he is
"actively exploring" a presidential campaign has sent a jolt through a
Republican 2016 primary process that had been heading to a quiet end in
2014. The move sets a new phase of the race in motion and makes it
easier for Bush to prepare for a full-fledged campaign. At the same
time, it increases the difficulty for some of his potential rivals to
consolidate support among key Republican officials while giving others a
handy target to use in gathering loyal, grass-roots support."
Democratic group American Bridge has a master cut of clips about Jeb Bush's issues with the conservative base.
National Journal reports that Marco Rubio believes he's got a different set of policies and donors that will set him apart from Bush.
ARIZONA: The AP:
' The results of a recount in the nation's last undecided congressional
race from the midterm elections are set to be revealed Wednesday by an
Arizona judge in a move that will determine the size of the GOP majority
in Washington."
IOWA: Clip and save: The Des Moines Register's candidate tracker for 2016.
NORTH CAROLINA: From the AP:
"Soon after taking office, North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory and U.S.
Rep. Mark Sanford of South Carolina accepted six-figure stock payouts
from an online mortgage broker accused by regulators of deceiving its
customers."
VIRGINIA: Republicans are blasting Gov. Terry McAuliffe's new package of gun regulations as purely political.
PROGRAMMING NOTES.
*** Wednesday's "News Nation with Tamron Hall" line-up:
Tamron Hall interviews Entertainment lawyer & USC professor
Jonathan Handel on the new Sony hacking threats; Denton Cinquegrana, oil
analyst, on the low gas prices; and Mike Reicher, of the LA Daily News
on the LAPD body cameras
*** Wednesday's "Andrea Mitchell Reports" line-up:
NBC's Andrea Mitchell interviews NBC's Chuck Todd, Joe Fryer, Bill
Neely, Amna Nawaz and Keir Simmons, Fmr. Rep Barney Frank and Team
Rubicon CEO Jacob Wood.
No comments :
Post a Comment