The center of this strategy, which Hezbollah's leader, Hassan
Nasrallah, has frequently espoused in re cent months, is the Golan
Heights, a 1,000-meter-high volcanic plateau that overlooks northern
Israel. It has been a battleground since biblical times.
Israel seized the western two-thirds of the heights in the 1967
Middle East war and annexed it in 1981. It refuses to surrender this
occupied enclave from where it has the Syrian capital, Damascus, within
the range of its artillery.
The Golan has also acted as a buffer zone that protects Israel from
any spillover from the war raging in Syria. However, if the Israelis are
correct, that may be changing, with the Tehran regime, which with
Russia dominates Syrian military strategy, using Hezbollah to
establish a new forward base against the Jewish state.
"Like other foreign and domestic actors, Hezbollah has seized on the
Syrian civil war to improve its position in the country and the
surrounding region," the U.S.-based global security consultancy Stratfor
observed in an April 6 analysis.
Stratfor amplified recent reports that Hezbollah has been setting up
bases on the Golan and in other parts of southern Syria where it has
strong forces on the ground supporting the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad just as its patron Iran does.
If Assad manages to stay in power, he will likely have to surrender
control of the Golan to Iran and Hezbollah to threaten Israel.
The efforts by Hezbollah "to expand and solidify its control in Syria will only increase in the future," Stratfor noted.
Satellite imagery recently showed that Hezbollah has built up a major
base outside Qusair, a town near Syria's border with Lebanon, which
Hezbollah forces stormed in June 2013 in their first major engagement in
the Syrian war.
According to Stratfor, Hezbollah plans use Qusair to stockpile
weapons, including artillery pieces, short-range rockets and mortars
along with about 60 T-72 tanks it acquired in the Syrian fighting.
There are reports that long-range ballistic missiles — including
Iranian-built Shahabs and Fateh-110s — have been deployed at Qusair,
although satellite imagery has not confirmed this.
Senior Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps officers reportedly
inspect the Qusair base frequently and, according to Stratfor, treat it
"as an Iranian asset," part of Hezbollah's plans to keep a permanent
force of 3,000 fighters or more in Syria.
Since January 2013, the Israelis have mounted as many as 10
airstrikes to destroy advanced weaponry moving from Syria to Lebanon
for Hezbollah, supposedly including Russian-made air-defense missile
systems that could pose a serious threat to Israel's long-held control
of the skies over Syria and Lebanon at a stroke.
The most recent such strike was on April 25, 2015. There have been
none since the Russians installed advanced S-300 air-defense systems
around the airbase they have built near Latakia since their September
2015 intervention in Syria, although Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has declared the operations to block weapons deliveries to Hezbollah would continue.
That could ignite a new conflict between Hezbollah and Israel, which
last went to war in 2006 when Hezbollah fought Israel's vaunted military
to a standstill.
But these days, Hezbollah, which has seen an estimated 1,200
fighters killed and three times that many wounded in Syria since 2012,
has its hands full and is not looking for another fight with Israel
right now.
However, the 2006 war ended badly for Israel, which failed in its
objective to crush Hezbollah and suffered an unprecedented monthlong
bombardment of about 4,000 missiles and most analysts are convinced
that both sides see it as "unfinished business."
A July 16 threat assessment by the Foundation for Defense of
Democracies, a right-leaning Washington think-tank, observed that "the
next war between Israel and Hezbollah will likely not be confined to the
Lebanese-Israeli border. Hezbollah will try to shift some of the weight
of the battle to Syria and the Golan Heights.
"Indeed... Hezbollah and Iran plan to connect the Golan Heights to
the terror group's South Lebanon stronghold — to make it one contiguous
front against Israel."
This concept has been given some weight in recent months as Iran's
IRGC and Hezbollah have established bases in the Syrian-controled
sector of the Golan amid an uptick in violence that has triggered
Israeli action directed primarily at Hezbollah and the IRGC.
On Jan. 18, 2015, an Israeli Apache helicopter gunship fired missiles
into a convoy carrying IRGC and Hezbollah commanders on a
reconnaissance sweep near the Golan's largely deserted capital,
Quneitra.
Among the dead were an IRGC brigadier-general, Mohammad Allah Daddi,
a ballistic missile specialist, and three Hezbollah leaders: Abu Ali
Reza, a senior field commander, and Mohammed Issa, who was understood to
have been overseeing the setting up of missile bases on the Golan.
Hezbollah also lost Jihad Mughniyeh, eldest son of Imad Mughniyeh,
the group's long-time military chief who was assassinated in a
Damascus car bombing on Feb. 12, 2008, supposedly a joint operation by
the CIA and Israel's Mossad intelligence service.
Syrian sources said Allah Daddi had overall charge of building four missile bases near the border with Israel.
Israel's Channel 2 television reported that Issa was responsible for
coordinating the transfer of missiles from Syria and Iran as well as
Hezbollah's arsenal in Lebanon. Reza was considered a central Hezbollah
figure whose mission was to plan an offensive on Israel's northern
border in any future conflict, including overrunning the Galilee
region.
Israel, as usual, did not acknowledge the attack but there seems
little doubt that the targeted group was known to the Israelis and that
the airstrike was intended as a particularly sharp warning to Iran and
Hezbollah.
Iranian leaders reportedly telephoned Nasrallah urging him not to
retaliate for the loss of so many commanders in one action so as to
avoid triggering a major conflict, as he had done in July 2006 with a
cross-border raid in which five Israelis were killed and two captured.
Possibly with the destructive consequences of that war in mind, and
not wishing to fight Israel while engaged in heavy fighting in Syria,
Nasrallah did not retaliate in force.
On Dec. 19, 2015, Samir Kuntar,
a Lebanese Druze Muslim who joined Hezbollah while imprisoned in
Israel for killing a Jewish family in a Palestinian raid in 1979, was
killed along with several Hezbollah commanders in a nighttime missile
strike on his apartment building in the Damascus suburb of Jaramana.
Kuntar, who spent nearly three decades behind bars, was released in
2008 in an exchange with Hezbollah for the bodies of two Israeli
soldiers whose capture triggered the 2006 war.
At the time of his death, Kuntar was tasked with recruiting Syrian
Druze living in the Golan region into an Iranian-controlled militia to
fight the Jewish state.
In the next war, which many see coming, Israel is preparing to fight a
very different enemy. Hezbollah may have suffered heavy casualties in
Syria but it has also learned how to fight conventional wars, with armor
and artillery and maneuvring big battalions across strange terrain
rather than the small-scale actions that constituted most of its combat
against Israel between 1982 and 2000.
Working and coordinating men and women with rich ideas to actualize Biafra with mental powers and sophisticated intelligence. We value rich ideas and actions that are not violence in nature that is capable of helping us to actualize the Sovereign State of Biafra.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments
(
Atom
)
No comments :
Post a Comment